Boao Forum For Asia ( BFA) released the Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process Report 2020 predicting that the Asian economy will have zero growth in 2020, and the growth rate of most Asian economies will be lower than 2019. The short-term factors are great impact caused by epidemic on the world economy, including Asia, and the global supply chain and industrial chain are facing the risk of interruption. At the same time, the unilateral and protectionist policies of the Trump administration in the United States have severely inhibited global trade and investment transactions, greatly affecting investors’ confidence. Experts say that if the global epidemic eases in the next half year and the economy rebounds strongly, it may also achieve positive growth. However, if the epidemic is repeated or the economic stimulus policies fail, the possibility of more serious negative growth cannot be ruled out.
The representative of BFA said that Asian economies are very resilient based on their large market, a fast-growing middle class, a constantly improving balance of payments and financial situation, increasing investment in human capital, and a prosperous digital economy. After the epidemic, Asian economies will continue to play the role of global economic growth engines.
The survey shows that as the epidemic spreads rapidly, the interviewed entrepreneurs' views on the global economy in 2020 and the forecast of the global economic development trend in the next three years have shown judgments from cautious to optimistic. 30% of entrepreneurs believe that global GDP will decline in 2020, but more than half of entrepreneurs are optimistic about the development of the global economy in the next three years. Concerning on priority destinations for cross-border investment in the future, entrepreneurs selected Asia Pacific, North America and Europe in order.