Robert Farley, professor and writer of diplomacy and international relations at the University of Kentucky, published an article in The National Interest magazine, predicting that the World War III may erupt in the following five places in 2020:
1.Iran-Israel
Farley said Iran and Israel are fighting in various parts of the Middle East, Iran supports anti-Israeli groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and other places, while Israel vigorously cracks down on Iranian forces deployed in Syria. In addition, Israel provides intelligence and support to the Anti-Iranian Alliance led by the United States, and Iran has also invested heavily in strengthening relations with the militia and other non-state actors.
Farley believes that there will not be a large-scale war between Iran and Israel, but Iran will use the opportunity of developing a nuclear program to humiliate Saudi Arabia, which may prompt Israel to increase its crackdown on Iranian targets and even internal Iranian targets. The consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict could bring negative effects and could threaten global oil supplies, leading to US or Russian intervention.
2.Turkey-United States
Tensions between Turkey and the United States have escalated over the past year. The United States unexpectedly gave Turkey a green light to allow it to eliminate Kurds supported by the United States in the border areas of Turkey and Syria, but quickly repented and said that it would impose sanctions if Turkey did not stop related actions.
Farley believes that US-Turkish relations have deteriorated to the point that people are worried about the future of NATO. The complexity of the US-Turkish issue may trigger a direct confrontation between the two sides, in which case Russia will not stand idly by.
3. Kashmir
Over the past decade, relations between Pakistan and India have been unstable. In 2019, Indian Prime Minister Modi abolished the autonomy of the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir and changed the nationality policy in other parts of India, which led to turmoil in India and triggered the escalation of long-term tensions between India and Pakistan.
Farley said that measures taken by India in Kashmir and modifications to the Nationality Law could escalate tensions and trigger terrorism in India and Pakistan. He mentioned in the article that China and Pakistan have strong ties, and the relationship between the United States and India is also developing, which may make the conflict between India and Pakistan an international disaster.
4. The Korean Peninsula
A year ago, people hoped that the negotiations between the United States and North Korea could successfully ease the tension on the Korean peninsula. But unfortunately, the fundamental problems of the internal positions of the two countries have prevented them from reaching any agreement. Tensions between the two countries have now reached their highest level since 2017, and the upcoming US elections will only make the situation worse.
Farley believes that if US President Trump reaches an agreement with North Korea, it will help him win the presidential election. If North Korea tests intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear tests, Trump may resort to violence to intervene.
5.South China Sea
Farley believes that Sino-US relations are currently in a state of instability, and any trade agreement between the two countries seems to ease the tension to some extent, but whether it can be implemented is still unknown. There are incentives to promote the escalation of the crisis in both the diplomatic and economic fields, which may trigger military confrontation between the two countries in the South China Sea or the East China Sea.
Farley said that all parties are waiting for the outcome of the US election, there is a slim chance of the outbreak of World War III in 2020. However, each crisis has its own logic, and the crisis in Pakistan, India, China or Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia will get worse. Elections should not distract the United States from the effects of international conflicts, as this could be the trigger for the next war.
(Compiled by Wang Qian)
Reference:World War III Could Erupt in These Places in 2020, Al Jazeera, December 29, 2019.